Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in a large Brazilian urban center.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a great impact on the behavior of individuals and the organization of health systems. This study analyzed the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on public hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in a large city in Brazil, Belo Horizonte, MG, with approximately 2.5 million inhabitants. METHODS: In a time-series analysis, this study used administrative data from the national "Hospital Information System" from 2010 to February 2020 to estimate the expected number of hospitalizations for CVD by month during the COVID-19 pandemic in Belo Horizonte in 2020 using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model. For CVD, this study compared the expected number of hospital admissions, intensive care use, deaths during hospitalization, and mean length of stay with the observed number during the period. RESULTS: There were 6,517 hospitalizations for CVD from March to December 2020, a decrease of 16.3% (95% CI: 4.7-25.3) compared to the projected. The number of intensive care hospitalizations for CVD fell 24.1% (95% CI 13-32.7). The number of deaths also decreased (17.4% [80% CI: 0 - 0.30]), along with the reduction in hospitalizations, as did the length of stay for CVD hospitalizations. These reductions, however, were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalizations for CVD were 16.3% lower than expected in a large Brazilian city, possibly due to the fear of getting infected or going to hospitals. Public campaigns informing how to proceed in case of CVD show that prompt urgent attention is essential to mitigate the indirect effects of the pandemic on CVD.

Higher mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in socially vulnerable areas in Belo Horizonte: implications for vaccine prioritization. / Maior mortalidade durante a pandemia de COVID-19 em áreas socialmente vulneráveis em Belo Horizonte: implicações para a priorização da vacinação.

OBJECTIVE: To assess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic according to social vulnerability by areas of Belo Horizonte (BH), aiming at strategies for vaccination. METHODS: Ecological study with mortality analysis according to census tracts classified by the Health Vulnerability Index, a composite indicator that includes socioeconomic and sanitation variables. Deaths by natural causes and by COVID-19 were obtained from the "Mortality Information System", between the 10th and 43rd epidemiological weeks (EW) of 2020. Excess mortality was calculated in a time series model, considering observed and expected deaths per EW, between 2015 and 2019, per census tracts. Mortality rates (MR) were calculated and age-standardized using population estimates from the 2010 census, by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). RESULTS: Excess mortality in BH was 16.1% (n = 1,524): 11, 18.8 and 17.3% in low, intermediate and high vulnerability areas, respectively. The differences between observed and expected age-standardized MR by natural causes were equal to 59/100,000 inhabitants in BH, increasing from 31 to 77 and 95/100,000 inhabitants in the areas of low, intermediate and high vulnerability, respectively. There was an aging gradient in MR by COVID-19, ranging from 4 to 611/100,000 inhabitants among individuals aged 20-39 years and 75+ years. The COVID-19 MR per 100,000 older adults (60+ years) was 292 in BH, increasing from 179 to 354 and 476, in low, intermediate and high vulnerability areas, respectively. CONCLUSION: Inequalities in mortality, particularly among older adults, combined with the limited supply of doses, demonstrate the importance of prioritizing socially vulnerable areas during vaccination against COVID-19.

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a mortalidade por áreas de Belo Horizonte (BH) durante a pandemia de COVID-19 conforme a vulnerabilidade social, visando a uma estratégia de vacinação. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico com análise de mortalidade, segundo setores censitários classificados pelo índice de vulnerabilidade da saúde, composto de indicadores de saneamento e socioeconômicos. Óbitos por causas naturais e COVID-19 foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, entre a 10ª e a 43ª semanas epidemiológicas (SE) de 2020. Calculou-se o excesso de mortalidade por modelo de série temporal, considerando-se as mortes observadas por SE entre 2015 e 2019, por setor censitário. Taxas de mortalidade (TM) foram calculadas e padronizadas por idade com base em estimativas populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). RESULTADOS: Houve 16,1% (n = 1.524) de excesso de mortalidade em BH: 11, 18,8 e 17,3% nas áreas de baixa, média e elevada vulnerabilidade, respectivamente. As diferenças entre TM observadas e esperadas por causas naturais, padronizadas por idade, foi igual a 59/100 mil habitantes em BH, aumentando de 31 para 77 e 95/100 mil, nas áreas de baixa, média e elevada vulnerabilidade, respectivamente. Houve gradiente de aumento com a idade nas TM por COVID-19, variando de 4 a 611/100 mil habitantes entre as idades de 20-39 anos e 75+ anos. A TM por COVID-19 por 100 mil idosos (60+ anos) foi igual a 292, aumentando de 179 para 354 e 476 nos setores de baixa, média e elevada vulnerabilidade, respectivamente. CONCLUSÃO: Desigualdades na mortalidade, mesmo entre idosos, aliadas à baixa oferta de doses, demonstram a importância de priorizar áreas socialmente vulneráveis durante a vacinação contra COVID-19.